Nigeria's petrol imports crash as Dangote and local refineries hit near-full capacity in April

Nigeria's domestic refineries averaged 99.12% capacity utilisation in April, with Dangote Refinery hitting 100% for most of the month, pushing daily petrol production to 53.6 million litres above the country's 50 million litre daily consumption benchmark.

Petrol imports collapsed from 40.1 million litres per day in March to just 3.7 million litres per day in April, as domestic supply from local refineries covered 40.7 million litres of the 44.4 million litre daily average supply.

Despite the supply improvement, pump prices remained high, ranging from N1,271.50 per litre in Lagos to N1,371.50 in Maiduguri, partly due to the ongoing Middle East crisis, with Brent crude averaging $120.55 per barrel during the period.

The near-total collapse of petrol imports in a single month is the clearest signal yet that Nigeria's downstream market is structurally shifting. Fuel importers, trading desks, and logistics businesses built around import supply chains are facing an existential squeeze right now.

For Nigerian manufacturers, transporters, and businesses whose operating costs are tied to diesel and petrol prices, the key question over the next 6 to 12 months is whether Dangote and the modular refineries can sustain this output consistently, since a single refinery disruption could quickly reverse the supply picture.

NNPC's newly signed MOU with two Chinese firms to revive the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries adds a longer-term supply buffer, but those plants remain offline today. It is not yet clear whether pump prices will fall meaningfully in the near term, but the signal to watch is whether domestic crude supply to refineries, which still fell well short of allocations in Q1 2026, can be brought closer to match refining capacity.