Nigeria's Q1 2026 fixed-income market hit peak yields in January before rate cuts compressed returns

The 364-day Treasury Bill posted its highest stop rate of 18.47% on January 7, 2026, the best risk-free naira return of the entire quarter, before the CBN's rate-cut cycle drove yields steadily lower through February and March.

The CBN's Monetary Policy Committee cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.50% on February 24, triggering rapid market repricing: the 364-day T-bill stop rate fell 204 basis points from its January 7 peak to 16.43% by March 25.

Investor demand remained overwhelming despite falling yields. The March 25 one-year T-bill attracted N2.726 trillion in subscriptions against a N200 billion offer (a 13.6x ratio), while total FGN bond subscriptions for Q1 hit N5.88 trillion against a N2.45 trillion combined offer.

The signal for Nigerian fixed-income investors is clear: the peak yield window of Q1 2026 has closed, and those who did not lock in January's rates are now operating in a structurally lower-return environment.

Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), insurance companies, and institutional treasury desks entering the market in Q2 2026 should expect bond stop rates to continue drifting downward as the CBN's easing cycle progresses, the article notes April is already continuing that trend.

Retail and high-net-worth investors who use money market funds or fixed-income products should watch for fund managers repricing their advertised returns downward over the next one to two quarters as maturing high-yield paper rolls into lower-rate instruments.